Military vehicles carrying DF-31A
intercontinental ballistic missiles march past the Tiananmen Rostrum
during the military parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the
victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese
Aggression in Beijing in September 2015.
© AP
For decades, Japan has sheltered safely under the
U.S. nuclear umbrella. But
advancing weapons technology and changing American politics are forcing Tokyo to confront a longstanding taboo: will it one day need its own nukes ? China's ever more sophisticated nuclear weapons -- such as submarine-launched ballistic missiles which can reach U.S. bases in Japan from the South China Sea and a new array of medium-range cruise missiles -- are giving Beijing fresh options. If an armed conflict with China were to escalate and America's conventional weapons could not win, the U.S. might be reluctant to use nuclear weapons first for fear of retaliation.
Western Europe saw a similar loss of faith in the U.S. nuclear umbrella at the end of the Cold War. In the 1980s, the Soviet Union deployed SS-20 intermediate-range missiles that could reach Western Europe but not the U.S. If the Soviet Union attacked Western Europe with the SS-20, the U.S. would want to retaliate. But that, in return, would prompt the Soviet Union to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles from submarines deployed in the Arctic Sea and Okhotsk Sea to attack the continental U.S. Washington would have to decide whether to risk an attack on its homeland by helping its Western allies.
That problem was solved when the U.S. deployed Pershing II nuclear ballistic missiles to counter the Soviet SS-20s and negotiated a treaty with Moscow scrapping both sides' ground-launched intermediate range missiles.
The risk now is that China may try to undermine the U.S. nuclear protection of Japan by deploying its own submarine-launched long-range nuclear missiles and combining them with mid-range missiles that have already been deployed in large numbers.
In theory, Japan could develop its own nuclear weapons. The Japanese government first looked into that option when China went nuclear in the 1960s. Various options are apparently being studied by the current government and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet has approved a statement saying the country's pacifist constitution does not prohibit a minimum necessary level of nuclear capability.
Some in the U.S. support Japan's nuclearization. Real estate mogul Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican Party presidential nominee, is one because it fits his philosophy of encouraging America's allies to shoulder a greater burden of their own defense.
Postwar Japanese society is extremely averse to nuclear weapons, creating an almost insurmountable political hurdle. But there is still some time for debate before China can deploy submarine-launched missiles in the South China Sea that can reach all of the continental U.S.
advancing weapons technology and changing American politics are forcing Tokyo to confront a longstanding taboo: will it one day need its own nukes ? China's ever more sophisticated nuclear weapons -- such as submarine-launched ballistic missiles which can reach U.S. bases in Japan from the South China Sea and a new array of medium-range cruise missiles -- are giving Beijing fresh options. If an armed conflict with China were to escalate and America's conventional weapons could not win, the U.S. might be reluctant to use nuclear weapons first for fear of retaliation.
Western Europe saw a similar loss of faith in the U.S. nuclear umbrella at the end of the Cold War. In the 1980s, the Soviet Union deployed SS-20 intermediate-range missiles that could reach Western Europe but not the U.S. If the Soviet Union attacked Western Europe with the SS-20, the U.S. would want to retaliate. But that, in return, would prompt the Soviet Union to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles from submarines deployed in the Arctic Sea and Okhotsk Sea to attack the continental U.S. Washington would have to decide whether to risk an attack on its homeland by helping its Western allies.
That problem was solved when the U.S. deployed Pershing II nuclear ballistic missiles to counter the Soviet SS-20s and negotiated a treaty with Moscow scrapping both sides' ground-launched intermediate range missiles.
The risk now is that China may try to undermine the U.S. nuclear protection of Japan by deploying its own submarine-launched long-range nuclear missiles and combining them with mid-range missiles that have already been deployed in large numbers.
In theory, Japan could develop its own nuclear weapons. The Japanese government first looked into that option when China went nuclear in the 1960s. Various options are apparently being studied by the current government and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet has approved a statement saying the country's pacifist constitution does not prohibit a minimum necessary level of nuclear capability.
Some in the U.S. support Japan's nuclearization. Real estate mogul Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican Party presidential nominee, is one because it fits his philosophy of encouraging America's allies to shoulder a greater burden of their own defense.
Postwar Japanese society is extremely averse to nuclear weapons, creating an almost insurmountable political hurdle. But there is still some time for debate before China can deploy submarine-launched missiles in the South China Sea that can reach all of the continental U.S.
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